CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-02-14T08:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-14T08:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37332/-1
CME Note: Wide, faint CME seen primarily to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 which appears to be associated with a C6.6-class flare from Active Region 13994 and subsequent eruption seen best in SDO AIA 094 and SDO AIA 304 with notable deflection to the east. Despite the overall weak eruptive signature, triangulation strongly suggests that the eruption is associated with front-sided activity bounded by longitudes -25 to -45.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-17T05:06Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-02-14 13:21
 - Time at C2: 2025-02-14 08:48
 - Radial speed: 701.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S16E32
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.2 (S11E23). Peak at 2025-02-14 09:48
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 577.49 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-02-17 05:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.32 hours)
Lead Time: 61.72 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-02-14T15:23Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy